Eli Lilly (LLY) is scheduled to report results of its third fiscal quarter before the market open on Tuesday, October 24, with a conference call scheduled for 9:00 am EDT. What to watch for: 1. COMPANY RAISES EPS, REVENUE GROWTH VIEW: Along with its second quarter report, the drug giant raised its 2017 EPS view to $4.10-$4.20 from $4.05-$4.15. Consensus estimates for FY17 EPS is 4.16. The company also raised its yearly revenue view to $22B-$22.5B from $21.8B-$22.3B versus a consensus estimate of $5.52B. 2. DEVELOPMENT DISAPPOINTMENTS: Since its last quarterly financial report in late July, Lilly had a couple of setbacks in its development programs. The first came on July 25, when Eli Lilly and Incyte (INCY) announced that a re-submission to the FDA for the NDA, for baricitinib, a once-daily oral medication for the treatment of moderate-to-severe rheumatoid arthritis, will be delayed beyond 2017. On the heels of the NDA delay for baricitinib, Leerink analyst Seamus Fernandez downgraded Eli Lilly to Market Perform from Outperform, citing intense competition and saying that the regulatory update for Olumiant removes upside optionality in rheumatoid arthritis and possibly other indications given concerns over thrombosis risk. The analyst also lowered his price target on the shares to $90 from $93. The next disappointment came on October 10, when the drugmaker said its drug to treat non-small cell lung cancer failed to meet its primary goal in a clinical trial. Eli Lilly said at the time that its Phase 3 JUNIPER study evaluating Verzenio for advanced non-small cell lung cancer failed to meet the primary goal of improving overall survival. The late-stage study was comparing the drug with erlotinib, a drug made by Roche (RHHBY), in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer with gene mutations whose cancer has progressed despite initial therapies. 3. STREAMLINING PLANS: On September 7, Eli Lilly announced actions to streamline operations to more efficiently focus resources on developing new medicines and to improve its cost structure. Global workforce reductions, including those from a U.S. voluntary early retirement program, are expected to impact approximately 3,500 positions, said the company at the time. the restructuring will include evaluation of necessary adjustments to the workforce, with the goal of continued investment in new medicines and growth. 4. CONCERNS: On October 10, Eli Lilly was downgraded at Credit Suisse and an analyst at BMO Capital said he has concerns about its results in fiscal 2019 and 2020. Credit Suisse analyst Vamil Divan downgraded the stock to Neutral from Outperform and kept an $88 price target on shares. Divan told clients that he sees “limited drivers” of further upside and that the valuation looks “full” with shares up 13% since mid-August. Divan expects Lilly’s sales growth to be flat in 2018, due to patent expirations, before returning to growth. Commenting specifically on Verzenio, Divan said he expects a slower ramp up for the drug following the FDA approval given competition in that space. BMO Capital analyst Alex Arfaei, who has an Underperform rating on Lilly and raised his price target to $73 from $71, told clients on October 10, that he expects the drugmaker to have a “good” third quarter and finish the year at the high end of guidance, but he has “concerns” about 2019 and 2020 given continued price erosion for Humalog and volume erosion for Humulin, among other reasons, adding that a slower-than-expected Verzenio launch is a “near-term risk.”
previous post