On The Fly: What to watch in Target's earnings report - InvestingChannel

On The Fly: What to watch in Target’s earnings report

Target (TGT) is scheduled to report results of its fourth fiscal quarter before the market open on Tuesday, March 6. Its 2018 Financial Community Meeting conference call, which includes Q4 results, will be held at 11:30 am ET. What to watch for: 1. COMPETITION WITH ONLINE RETAILERS: Retailers like Target have been hurt by an in online shopping on sites like Amazon (AMZN) rather than at brick-and-mortar stores. Amazon Fashion is taking apparel sales away from Target and J.C. Penney (JCP), according to a survey from Coresite Research that measured the number of shoppers, indicating that more than 20% of respondents said they have switched more of their apparel spending away from Target and other retailers to Amazon. In December, Target acquired same-day delivery platform Shipt in December for $550M in cash, stepping up its challenge to Walmart and Amazon. The all-cash deal will let Target customers order groceries and other goods online, and then have the items sent directly to their doors from nearby Target stores. The deal will give Target same-day delivery at about half of its stores by summer 2018, with the number growing to a majority of stores in time for the holiday season. Credit Suisse analyst Seth Sigman said Target’s aggressive” strategic changes in 2017 position the retailer as a “survivor” and set it up for stronger near-term comp sales. 2. GUIDANCE: In January, Target raised its FY17 earnings view and said it is currently planning for a low single-digit increase in its 2018 comparable sales and “year-over-year stability in EPS generated by its core business.” Other companies in the retail space that also reported strong sales for the critical holiday season include Kohl’s (KSS), Macy’s (M) and J.C. Penney. Target also sees Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.30-$1.40, above its previous estimates of $1.05-$1.27. For 2018, Target sees adjusted EPS of $5.15-$5.45, well above analysts’ consensus of $4.37 at the time. Credit Suisse analyst Seth Sigman expects Target to return to EBITDA growth in 2018. 3. HOLIDAY SEASON: In January, Target said that comparable sales for the combined November/December period grew 3.4%, which was better than the company previously said that it expected. Comparable sales across all of the company’s core merchandise categories — Home, Apparel, Food & Beverage, Hardlines and Essentials — were positive and accelerated from the third quarter, reflecting strong traffic growth, positive store comps and continued strength in digital sales. Target now expects 2017 will be the fourth consecutive year in which its digital sales grow more than 25%. 4. STORE REMODELS, OTHER INITIATIVES: Target is expanding its plans to remodel supercenters and open smaller stores in cities. Target will remodel over 55% of its current stores by year end 2020, the company said last year. While e-commerce sales are rising, CEO Brian Cornell told CNBC that stores will continue to play a key role in the company’s overall strategy. “The winning retailers of the future are going to combine great physical assets with the ease that comes along with that digital interaction,” he said. “For the foreseeable future, the majority of U.S. retail sales will still take place at stores.” Baird analyst Peter Benedict believes that in addition to easy comparisons in the first quarter, Target’s accelerated remodels, additional exclusive brand launches, and emerging convenience-oriented fulfillment options will serve as catalysts this year. Looking to tomorrow’s investor meeting, Benedict predicted a “heavy” focus on its latest initiatives, like the remodels and exclusive brand launches, which he said could further improve the narrative around the stock. He later said that the investor meeting should highlight progress on multiple fronts in strengthening the company’s competitive positioning in the market.

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