On The Fly: What to watch in McDonald's earnings report - InvestingChannel

On The Fly: What to watch in McDonald’s earnings report

McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) is scheduled to report results of its fiscal first quarter before the market open on Monday, April 30, with a conference call scheduled for 11:00 am ET. What to watch for: 1. GUIDANCE: When McDonald’s reported fourth quarter earnings on January 30, it said it expected FY18 results to be “a little more choppy,” citing tax reform and refranchising. It added that it would accelerate its reimages in the U.S. due to the tax reform, saying that 4,000 stores would get next-generation kiosks in 2018. McDonald’s CFO Kevin Ozan said, “For 2018, we plan to invest about $2.4B of capital, the majority of which will be dedicated to reinvesting in our existing locations through accelerated deployment of Experience of the Future in the U.S.” 2. DELIVERY AND MOBILE ORDERING: During its Q4 conference call, McDonald’s said delivery was now available in over 10,000 restaurants globally, and that the average check for delivery is 1.5-2x higher than normal, a “meaningful” contributor in many markets. At the time, McDonald’s said that, in the coming months, it would begin a marketing campaign targeted toward delivery and mobile ordering. McDonald’s CEO Steve Easterbrook added that McDonald’s had 20M registered mobile app users in the U.S. 3. COMPARABLE STORE SALES: McDonald’s reported a Q4 global comparable sales increase of 5.5%, the tenth straight quarter of comparable sales growth for the company. Zacks Equity Research said McDonald’s is likely to continue that upward comparable store sales trend in Q1. However, in a downgrade to Equal Weight from Overweight on April 16, analyst Will Slabaugh said, “We believe mid-single-digit comp growth of recent quarters… was a result of successful initiatives coming together at once and should not be considered the norm. Therefore, our newly revised 2018 SSS growth estimate of +2.0% for the U.S. reflects what we believe to be a good/more realistic year of growth for a chain with AUVs (average unit volumes) that virtually double its closest peers.” 4. COMPETING IN VALUE: In an industry earnings preview from Stifel analyst Chris O’Cull, he noted that “McDonald’s may not like it but low price value seems to be the key to its ability to win,” noting the company’s outperformance during FY17 appears to have been won with value, and that “despite some compelling $2 and $3 offerings, our channel checks indicate the $1 items represent the majority of the sales mix from the new value menu launched in January 2018, implying McDonald’s may be finding it difficult to move consumers off low-price value.”

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