From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Rates Recover Modestly, But Uncertainty Remains
[M]ortgage rates won’t care in the slightest when and if the Fed cuts rates this Wednesday. The Fed’s outlook on future rate cuts and on its policy stance in general will be of far more interest. Until we’re through Fed day, volatility potential remains high. That said, the bond market was at least willing to respond to the weekend’s Saudi oil news in an expected way (i.e. rates moved slightly lower as geopolitical risks flared). This suggests the bond market is approaching this week with a more open mind than last week (where traders pushed rates higher regardless of any argument to the contrary). [Most Prevalent Rates 30YR FIXED – 3.875%]
emphasis added
Tuesday:
• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for August. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 77.5%.
• At 10:00 AM: The September NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 66, unchanged from 66 in August. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.