I wanted to post my reaction to the election outcome early, so that I’d be the first pundit out of the gate with a reaction. Please wait until the winner is announced, then immediately read the appropriate part of this post and discard the rest:
If Trump wins:
No matter how many times Nate Silver (correctly) says that 10% events happen more often than you assume; a Trump win would be a catastrophe for the polling industry and the web sites that rely on it (like 538). The problem here is that it already happened in 2016, and measures were taken to prevent a repeat. If the polls are now much further off in missing the Trump vote than in 2016, that’s a huge problem for polling.
Not much more to say. Obviously Trump will become much more Trumpian now that he doesn’t need to worry about public opinion. More corrupt, more racist, more lazy, more authoritarian, more immature. I was far too easy on him during the first term, commenting on only 10% of his outrages. As a result, many commenters here were simply unaware of the awfulness of Trump. Never again! Over the next four years I’ll dramatically ramp up the Trump criticism.
In other words, the Trump beatings will continue until the morals of my commenters improve.
If Biden wins (lots more to say here):
1. No sugar-plums. Progressives will have sugar-plums dancing in their heads, as they anticipate a Biden administration finally delivering a liberal utopia. Not me—I live in California and thus know how Dems govern when given extensive power. I have some hope for modest improvements in a few areas like immigration, Cuba/Iran sanctions, federal pot enforcement, etc. And I won’t blame the Dems for higher taxes, as the GOP always spends money like a drunken sailor and then lets the next Democratic administration pick up the tab. But overall I expect a bad set of economic policies.
2. The bursting bubble. Over the next few weeks there will be a torrent of stories about how Trump is one of the worst politicians in the history of the world. These stories have been held in check thus far by the nagging thought that Trump did win in 2016, and maybe those claiming he is a “master manipulator” might be on to something. If Trump loses, all the idiotic things he did in the campaign will be clearly exposed as being – – – well, idiotic.
3. The second Bush was a lousy president, but unlike Trump he was re-elected. That’s partly because after 9/11 he pretended to be a strong leader. He took a strong (and often misguided) stance against terrorism. Trump never even tried to look like he cared about the biggest crisis since 2008. Why? That will always remain a mystery. You don’t get re-elected by producing good results (1933-36 and 2001-04 were bad years) you get re-elected by playing a decisive leader.
4. Trump never tried to enact popular measures that he seems to have supported. Prior to being elected, he often spoke positively about popular causes such as infrastructure, higher minimum wages, leaving pot laws up to the states, etc. Matt Yglesias points out that he seemed too lazy to take up these causes as president, and just farmed policy out to mainstream GOP operatives who focused on stuff like corporate tax cuts.
5. No FDR/Reagan/Thatcher. Successful politicians change the opposition, making them accept their policy innovations. Not Trump. The corporate tax rate will soon go up to 28%, exactly where I predicted 4 years ago that Hillary would have placed it. Much of the “deregulation” (always greatly overrated) will be swept away. Perhaps the only enduring change will be a tougher line on China. But that came from a change of mood in our foreign policy establishment; Trump actually likes that fact that Xi put a million Muslims into concentration camps (as long as China bought a few bushels of soybeans from us.)
The almost unique awfulness of Trump will make it hard to continue his policies, even when Biden might otherwise be inclined to do so. Think of the criticism Biden would get from his own party if he continues Trump’s mean-spirited policy toward refugees. Or the Muslim ban. No one will want to be accused of “Trumpism”. Even protectionist trade policies are now tainted. NIMBYism has been exposed as a part of “structural racism.”
6. Are we facing a bad interregnum, as during 1932-33? Perhaps, especially if Trump becomes bitter and blames the American people, much as Hitler blamed the Germans for letting him down. (Oops, I’m not allowed to compare Trump to Hitler.) Perhaps the only constitutional amendment with a prayer of passing is to have presidents take office in early January with the new Congress, or better yet right after the Electoral College votes in mid-December. It’s hard to see how either party would object, at least if the interregnum ends up being a mess.
7. A leaderless GOP. Either Trump continues to be the leader of the GOP or the party will have no leader. Trump has completely emasculated the party. (OK, not Romney, but he’ll be toxic to the Trumpistas.) Read the story of how Trump publicly humiliated McSally in Arizona. Pence may be the favorite for 2024, but he’s obviously no leader.
8. Trump should be investigated and put behind bars if found guilty. It won’t happen because this is America, where the powerful are above the law.
9. The Roe v. Wade bubble may soon burst, and the public will discover that the contours of this issue are not at all what they imagined. Most interesting will be the reaction in purple states. In those states where the legislature goes back and forth between the two parties, a stable equilibrium will have to be found. The public will not accept abortion flipping between legal and illegal every 5 or 10 years. One party will be forced to accept defeat in the purple states. Which one loses will help us to better understand the actual politics of the issue.
If the Supreme Court doesn’t overrule Roe v. Wade, then the GOP will finally have to give up on the notion that appointing conservative judges will solve the “problem”.
10. We’re still becoming a banana republic! Time to turn all our guns around and begin relentlessly attacking the Woke People, just as the US military switched to fighting Japan after defeating . . . oops, I can’t keep making that comparison.