Housing economist Tom Lawler has been sending me his predictions of what the NAR will report for 11 years. And he has graciously allowed me to share his predictions with the readers of this blog.
The table below shows the consensus for each month, Lawler’s predictions, and the NAR’s initially reported level of sales.
Lawler hasn’t always been closer than the consensus, but usually when there has been a fairly large spread between Lawler’s estimate and the “consensus”, Lawler has been closer.
The NAR is scheduled to release Existing Home Sales for March at 10:00 AM, Thursday, April 22nd.
The consensus is for 6.17 million SAAR in March, down from 6.22 million in Febuary. Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 6.02 million SAAR. Based on Lawler’s estimate, I expect existing home sales to be below the consensus in March.
NOTE: There have been times when Lawler “missed”, but then he pointed out an apparent error in the NAR data – and the subsequent revision corrected that error. As an example, see: The “Curious Case” of Existing Home Sales in the South in April
Over the last 11 years, the consensus average miss was 147 thousand, and Lawler’s average miss was 73 thousand.
| Existing Home Sales, Forecasts and NAR Report millions, seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| Month | Consensus | Lawler | NAR reported1 |
| May-10 | 6.20 | 5.83 | 5.66 |
| Jun-10 | 5.30 | 5.30 | 5.37 |
| Jul-10 | 4.66 | 3.95 | 3.83 |
| Aug-10 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 4.13 |
| Sep-10 | 4.30 | 4.50 | 4.53 |
| Oct-10 | 4.50 | 4.46 | 4.43 |
| Nov-10 | 4.85 | 4.61 | 4.68 |
| Dec-10 | 4.90 | 5.13 | 5.28 |
| Jan-11 | 5.20 | 5.17 | 5.36 |
| Feb-11 | 5.15 | 5.00 | 4.88 |
| Mar-11 | 5.00 | 5.08 | 5.10 |
| Apr-11 | 5.20 | 5.15 | 5.05 |
| May-11 | 4.75 | 4.80 | 4.81 |
| Jun-11 | 4.90 | 4.71 | 4.77 |
| Jul-11 | 4.92 | 4.69 | 4.67 |
| Aug-11 | 4.75 | 4.92 | 5.03 |
| Sep-11 | 4.93 | 4.83 | 4.91 |
| Oct-11 | 4.80 | 4.86 | 4.97 |
| Nov-11 | 5.08 | 4.40 | 4.42 |
| Dec-11 | 4.60 | 4.64 | 4.61 |
| Jan-12 | 4.69 | 4.66 | 4.57 |
| Feb-12 | 4.61 | 4.63 | 4.59 |
| Mar-12 | 4.62 | 4.59 | 4.48 |
| Apr-12 | 4.66 | 4.53 | 4.62 |
| May-12 | 4.57 | 4.66 | 4.55 |
| Jun-12 | 4.65 | 4.56 | 4.37 |
| Jul-12 | 4.50 | 4.47 | 4.47 |
| Aug-12 | 4.55 | 4.87 | 4.82 |
| Sep-12 | 4.75 | 4.70 | 4.75 |
| Oct-12 | 4.74 | 4.84 | 4.79 |
| Nov-12 | 4.90 | 5.10 | 5.04 |
| Dec-12 | 5.10 | 4.97 | 4.94 |
| Jan-13 | 4.90 | 4.94 | 4.92 |
| Feb-13 | 5.01 | 4.87 | 4.98 |
| Mar-13 | 5.03 | 4.89 | 4.92 |
| Apr-13 | 4.92 | 5.03 | 4.97 |
| May-13 | 5.00 | 5.20 | 5.18 |
| Jun-13 | 5.27 | 4.99 | 5.08 |
| Jul-13 | 5.13 | 5.33 | 5.39 |
| Aug-13 | 5.25 | 5.35 | 5.48 |
| Sep-13 | 5.30 | 5.26 | 5.29 |
| Oct-13 | 5.13 | 5.08 | 5.12 |
| Nov-13 | 5.02 | 4.98 | 4.90 |
| Dec-13 | 4.90 | 4.96 | 4.87 |
| Jan-14 | 4.70 | 4.67 | 4.62 |
| Feb-14 | 4.64 | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| Mar-14 | 4.56 | 4.64 | 4.59 |
| Apr-14 | 4.67 | 4.70 | 4.65 |
| May-14 | 4.75 | 4.81 | 4.89 |
| Jun-14 | 4.99 | 4.96 | 5.04 |
| Jul-14 | 5.00 | 5.09 | 5.15 |
| Aug-14 | 5.18 | 5.12 | 5.05 |
| Sep-14 | 5.09 | 5.14 | 5.17 |
| Oct-14 | 5.15 | 5.28 | 5.26 |
| Nov-14 | 5.20 | 4.90 | 4.93 |
| Dec-14 | 5.05 | 5.15 | 5.04 |
| Jan-15 | 5.00 | 4.90 | 4.82 |
| Feb-15 | 4.94 | 4.87 | 4.88 |
| Mar-15 | 5.04 | 5.18 | 5.19 |
| Apr-15 | 5.22 | 5.20 | 5.04 |
| May-15 | 5.25 | 5.29 | 5.35 |
| Jun-15 | 5.40 | 5.45 | 5.49 |
| Jul-15 | 5.41 | 5.64 | 5.59 |
| Aug-15 | 5.50 | 5.54 | 5.31 |
| Sep-15 | 5.35 | 5.56 | 5.55 |
| Oct-15 | 5.41 | 5.33 | 5.36 |
| Nov-15 | 5.32 | 4.97 | 4.76 |
| Dec-15 | 5.19 | 5.36 | 5.46 |
| Jan-16 | 5.32 | 5.36 | 5.47 |
| Feb-16 | 5.30 | 5.20 | 5.08 |
| Mar-16 | 5.27 | 5.27 | 5.33 |
| Apr-16 | 5.40 | 5.44 | 5.45 |
| May-16 | 5.64 | 5.55 | 5.53 |
| Jun-16 | 5.48 | 5.62 | 5.57 |
| Jul-16 | 5.52 | 5.41 | 5.39 |
| Aug-16 | 5.44 | 5.49 | 5.33 |
| Sep-16 | 5.35 | 5.55 | 5.47 |
| Oct-16 | 5.44 | 5.47 | 5.60 |
| Nov-16 | 5.54 | 5.60 | 5.61 |
| Dec-16 | 5.54 | 5.55 | 5.49 |
| Jan-17 | 5.55 | 5.60 | 5.69 |
| Feb-17 | 5.55 | 5.41 | 5.48 |
| Mar-17 | 5.61 | 5.74 | 5.71 |
| Apr-17 | 5.67 | 5.56 | 5.57 |
| May-17 | 5.55 | 5.65 | 5.62 |
| Jun-17 | 5.58 | 5.59 | 5.52 |
| Jul-17 | 5.57 | 5.38 | 5.44 |
| Aug-17 | 5.48 | 5.39 | 5.35 |
| Sep-17 | 5.30 | 5.38 | 5.39 |
| Oct-17 | 5.30 | 5.60 | 5.48 |
| Nov-17 | 5.52 | 5.77 | 5.81 |
| Dec-17 | 5.75 | 5.66 | 5.57 |
| Jan-18 | 5.65 | 5.48 | 5.38 |
| Feb-18 | 5.42 | 5.44 | 5.54 |
| Mar-18 | 5.28 | 5.51 | 5.60 |
| Apr-18 | 5.60 | 5.48 | 5.46 |
| May-18 | 5.56 | 5.47 | 5.43 |
| Jun-18 | 5.45 | 5.35 | 5.38 |
| Jul-18 | 5.43 | 5.40 | 5.34 |
| Aug-18 | 5.36 | 5.36 | 5.34 |
| Sep-18 | 5.30 | 5.20 | 5.15 |
| Oct-18 | 5.20 | 5.31 | 5.22 |
| Nov-18 | 5.19 | 5.23 | 5.32 |
| Dec-18 | 5.24 | 4.97 | 4.99 |
| Jan-19 | 5.05 | 4.92 | 4.94 |
| Feb-19 | 5.08 | 5.46 | 5.51 |
| Mar-19 | 5.30 | 5.40 | 5.21 |
| Apr-19 | 5.36 | 5.31 | 5.19 |
| May-19 | 5.29 | 5.40 | 5.34 |
| Jun-19 | 5.34 | 5.25 | 5.27 |
| Jul-19 | 5.39 | 5.40 | 5.42 |
| Aug-19 | 5.38 | 5.42 | 5.49 |
| Sep-19 | 5.45 | 5.36 | 5.38 |
| Oct-19 | 5.49 | 5.36 | 5.46 |
| Nov-19 | 5.45 | 5.43 | 5.35 |
| Dec-19 | 5.43 | 5.40 | 5.54 |
| Jan-20 | 5.45 | 5.42 | 5.46 |
| Feb-20 | 5.50 | 5.58 | 5.77 |
| Mar-20 | 5.30 | 5.25 | 5.27 |
| Apr-20 | 4.30 | 4.17 | 4.33 |
| May-20 | 4.38 | 3.80 | 3.91 |
| Jun-20 | 4.86 | 4.65 | 4.72 |
| Jul-20 | 5.39 | 5.85 | 5.86 |
| Aug-20 | 6.00 | 5.92 | 6.00 |
| Sep-20 | 6.25 | 6.38 | 6.54 |
| Oct-20 | 6.45 | 6.63 | 6.85 |
| Nov-20 | 6.70 | 6.50 | 6.69 |
| Dec-20 | 6.55 | 6.62 | 6.76 |
| Jan-20 | 6.60 | 6.48 | 6.69 |
| Feb-20 | 6.51 | 6.29 | 6.22 |
| Mar-20 | 6.17 | 6.02 | NA |
| 1NAR initially reported before revisions. | |||