I don’t expect a recession to occur in the next few years, but recessions are almost impossible to predict. It’s more interesting to think about the sort of policy mistakes (were they to occur) that might lead to a recession within a few years.
One mistake would be an excessively tight money policy, which could trigger a recession in 2022 or 2023. That’s possible, but seems quite unlikely at the moment.
A slightly more likely scenario would involve excessively expansionary monetary policy, which drove wage growth to levels inconsistent with 2% inflation over the long run. To get the inflation rate back on target the Fed would then need a tight money policy, which might trigger a recession.
When people suggest that current inflation is transitory, they mean it’s likely to go away without the Fed having to drive the economy into recession. (It’s transitory alright, but why?)
Some pundits want the Fed to do enough monetary stimulus to “give workers a raise”. That’s an extremely misguided view, which would not even help workers. In the long run, real wages are determined by real factors like productivity (and perhaps monopoly power among workers.) Monetary policy is a nominal factor, and cannot artificially create persistently higher real wages. (In the short run, monetary stimulus may push up prices faster than wages, reducing real wages.)
But unstable monetary policy can hurt workers by creating an unstable business cycle. The best policy mix is a monetary policy that produces stable nominal wage gains, combined with good supply side policies to boost real wages, that is, to improve the real wage/inflation mix for a given nominal wage increase.
Almost no one wants a recession in 2024. If we get one, it will be due to the misguided policies of people trying to help workers. They would overstimulate, and by 2023 the Fed would be forced to tighten to restore inflation credibility. I don’t think that’s the most likely case; rather it’s the most likely cause of a near-term recession should a recession occur.
PS. I say “almost” no one wants a recession in 2024 because . . . well . . .
PPS. Opposing coaches need to think about the fact that Bill Belichick wants them to punt when it’s 4th and one at midfield. Giannis needs to think about the fact that Phoenix wants him to take three pointers. Progressives need to think about the fact that Trump wants the economy to overheat in 2023.