I’m gathering existing home data for many local markets, and I’m watching inventory very closely this year.
The table below shows some local market data for July.
As I noted in Some thoughts on Housing Inventory
The key for housing in 2021 will be inventory. If inventory stays extremely low, there will be more housing starts and a larger increase in house prices. However, if inventory increases significantly, there will be fewer starts and less price appreciation.
Although inventory in these areas is down about 33% year-over-year, inventory is up 13.5% month-to-month (and up 26.5% over the last two months). Seasonally we’d usually expect a small increase in inventory from June to July – so some of this increase is seasonal (as opposed to a shift in the market).
It does appear inventory bottomed seasonally in March. And inventory is still historically very low, but increasing more than just seasonal.
| Existing Home Inventory | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul-21 | Jun-21 | Jul-21 | YoY | MoM | |
| Albuquerque | 1,062 | 1,112 | 1,772 | -40.1% | -4.5% |
| Atlanta | 8,668 | 7,787 | 15,442 | -43.9% | 11.3% |
| Austin | 3,294 | 2,265 | 5,309 | -38.0% | 45.4% |
| Boston | 3,719 | 3,822 | 4,853 | -23.4% | -2.7% |
| Charlotte | 4,073 | 3,462 | 7,045 | -42.2% | 17.6% |
| Colorado | 11,126 | 10,405 | 21,959 | -49.3% | 6.9% |
| Denver | 4,056 | 3,122 | 6,449 | -37.1% | 29.9% |
| Des Moines | 2,086 | 1,838 | 2,785 | -25.1% | 13.5% |
| Houston | 27,268 | 24,225 | 34,364 | -20.6% | 12.6% |
| Jacksonville | 4,668 | 4,586 | 7,852 | -40.6% | 1.8% |
| Las Vegas | 3,669 | 3,029 | 6,387 | -42.6% | 21.1% |
| Maryland | 10,164 | 8,550 | 14,685 | -30.8% | 18.9% |
| Memphis | 2,514 | 2,242 | 2,938 | -14.4% | 12.1% |
| Minnesota | 11,854 | 10,919 | 16,861 | -29.7% | 8.6% |
| Nashville | 4,105 | 3,377 | 7,199 | -43.0% | 21.6% |
| New Hampshire |
2,103 | 2,305 | 3,521 | -40.3% | -8.8% |
| North Texas |
12,363 | 9,747 | 18,470 | -33.1% | 26.8% |
| Northwest | 7,948 | 6,358 | 10,259 | -22.5% | 25.0% |
| Phoenix | 6,746 | 5,866 | 8,010 | -15.8% | 15.0% |
| Portland | 3,180 | 2,722 | 4,133 | -23.1% | 16.8% |
| Rhode Island |
2,110 | 1,985 | 2,775 | -24.0% | 6.3% |
| Sacramento | 1,602 | 1,297 | 1,266 | 26.5% | 23.5% |
| San Diego | 3,349 | 3,369 | 5,763 | -41.9% | -0.6% |
| Santa Clara |
1,820 | 1,767 | 1,950 | -6.7% | 3.0% |
| South Carolina |
12,869 | 11,163 | 21,592 | -40.4% | 15.3% |
| Total1 | 152,360 | 134,198 | 227,190 | -32.9% | 13.5% |
| 1excluding Denver (included in Colorado) | |||||