Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

Click on graph for larger image.

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red).

The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven day average.

The 7-day average is down 17.9% from the same day in 2019 (82.1% of 2019).  (Dashed line)

Overall, air travel has been off about 20% relative to 2019 for the last four months (with some ups and downs).

—– Restaurants: OpenTable —–

The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.

—– Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo —–

This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue).  

Blue is 2020 and Red is 2021.  

The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through November 11th.

Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.

Movie ticket sales were at $151 million last week, down about 29% from the median for the week. 

—– Hotel Occupancy: STR —–

This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).

This data is through November 6th. The occupancy rate was down 13.0% compared to the same week in 2019.

Notes: Y-axis doesn’t start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The occupancy rate will now decline seasonally into the new year.

—– Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration —–

This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019.

Blue is for 2020.  Red is for 2021.

As of November 5th, gasoline supplied was down 0.7% compared to the same week in 2019.

There have been eight weeks so far this year when gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019 – and consumption is running close to 2019 levels now.

—– Transit: Apple Mobility —–

This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: “This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities.” This is just a general guide – people that regularly commute probably don’t ask for directions.

There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. However the index is set “relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February”, and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can’t tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer.

This data is through November 13th 

for the United States and several selected cities.

The graph is the running 7-day average to remove the impact of weekends.

IMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I’m just using the transit data.

According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 112% of the January 2020 level. 

New York City is doing well by this metric, but subway usage in NYC is down sharply (next graph).

—– New York City Subway Usage —–

Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).

This graph is from Todd W Schneider. 

This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average).

Manhattan is at about 41% of normal.

This data is through Friday, November 12th.

He notes: “Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings”.