A brief excerpt:
Altos Research reports inventory up 2.4% last week …
As of March 25th, inventory was at 253 thousand (7-day average), compared to 248 thousand the prior week. Inventory was UP 2.4% from the previous week.
Last year inventory bottomed seasonally in April 2021 – very late in the year. This year, by this measure, inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March.
Inventory is still very low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is down 19.0%, and compared to the same week in 2020, and inventory is down 66.1% from 747 thousand.
One of the keys will be to watch the year-over-year change each week to see if the declines are decreasing. Here is a table of the year-over-year change by week since the beginning of the year.
Week Ending YoY Change 12/31/2021 -30.0% 1/7/2022 -26.0% 1/14/2022 -28.6% 1/21/2022 -27.1% 1/28/2022 -25.9% 2/4/2022 -27.9% 2/11/2022 -27.5% 2/18/2022 -25.8% 2/25/2022 -24.9% 3/4/2022 -24.2% 3/11/2022 -21.7% 3/18/2022 -21.7% 3/25/2022 -19.0%
Now we need to watch if the YoY change continues to decrease. Based on the current trend, it is possible inventory will be up YoY sometime in the second half of 2022.Altos Research CEO Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
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