Today’s dubious distinction is that we’d have to go back to 2009 before seeing rates that were meaningfully higher. [30 year fixed 5.35%]
emphasis added
Tuesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for March from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.80 million SAAR, down from 6.02 million.
• During the day, The AIA’s Architecture Billings Index for March (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.
On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):
| COVID Metrics | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | Week Ago |
Goal | ||
| Percent fully Vaccinated | 66.0% | — | ≥70.0%1 | |
| Fully Vaccinated (millions) | 219.0 | — | ≥2321 | |
| New Cases per Day3🚩 | 37,132 | 30,293 | ≤5,0002 | |
| Hospitalized3 | 9,560 | 9,883 | ≤3,0002 | |
| Deaths per Day3 | 389 | 489 | ≤502 | |
| 1 Minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met. |
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Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.
Hospitalizations and deaths are declining, but new cases are increasing.
Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.