Mortgage rates are coming off their best 2 weeks in quite some time–a feat that sounds more impressive than it is by the time we consider the precursors. Namely, the improvement in rates was heavily dependent on vastly bigger movement in the stock market. Stocks and rates don’t always move in unison, but when stocks fall enough, it can indicate that investors are seeking safer havens for cash (i.e. moving away from risk). [30 year fixed 5.36%]
emphasis added
Tuesday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, New Home Sales for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 750 thousand SAAR, down from 763 thousand SAAR in March.
• Also at 10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.
On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):
| COVID Metrics | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | Week Ago |
Goal | ||
| Percent fully Vaccinated | 66.5% | — | ≥70.0%1 | |
| Fully Vaccinated (millions) | 220.9 | — | ≥2321 | |
| New Cases per Day3🚩 | 102,940 | 93,377 | ≤5,0002 | |
| Hospitalized3🚩 | 17,432 | 15,982 | ≤3,0002 | |
| Deaths per Day3🚩 | 281 | 276 | ≤502 | |
| 1 Minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met. |
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Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.
New cases have quadrupled from the recent low, and hospitalizations and deaths are increasing week-over-week.
Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.