This Impressive Housing News Might Make You Jealous

Proprietary Data Insights

Top Residential Construction Stock Searches This Month

0 1 2
Rank Name Searches
#1 D.R. Horton 5,069
#2 Lennar Corp 4,514
#3 NVR Inc 2,730
#4 KB Home 2,547
#5 PulteGroup 1,869

We Have A Question For You

In a minute, The Juice reveals housing data that could make you jealous. Or euphorically happy. All depends on your current housing situation and housing-related aspirations. 

To this end, we have questions about your housing situation. We’ll feature some of your answers in a future edition of The Juice newsletter. 

But first, homebuilders can help us get a read on the housing market. 

Source: Google Finance 

And if all five of the most searched homebuilder stocks in our proprietary Trackstar database gauging investor interest haven’t taken a beating. 

Over the next month or so, these companies report earnings. 

Up next – KB Home (KBH) on Wednesday. 

Starting with KB, we’ll see what each company has to say on their earnings conference calls to gauge the cooling housing market and see if homebuilder stocks might be a screaming buy for long-term investors.

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Housing

This Impressive Housing News Might Make You Jealous

Key Takeaways:

  • The data continues to indicate there will be no housing crash. 
  • Almost across the board, homeowners appear healthy. 
  • The Juice wants to know where you stand – personally – on housing. 

 

home equity

Source: Realtor.com

That’s impressive. 

  • Record homeowner equity. 
  • If prices plunge and equity decreases by 20%, we’ll still be nowhere near where we were when the bottom fell out on housing in 2008. 

Of course, much of what happened in 2008 had to do with mortgages. 

And, despite the rate on a 30-year mortgage firmly above 6% (at 6.42% to be exact), a majority of homeowners are sitting pretty on this front as well. 

Contract interest rate

Source: Twitter

  • 85% of mortgages have an interest rate less than or equal to 5%. 
  • As the chart shows, 65% are less than or equal to 4%. 
  • Nearly a quarter of mortgages have an interest rate less than or equal to 3%. 

If you’re locked in to such a great rate – with so much equity – you might be reluctant to sell. Some would say you might even be stupid to sell, particularly if you’d have to pay significantly more for your next home alongside a 6%-plus interest rate. Indeed, new for-sale listings were down 13%, year-over-year, as of last week. 

So think about it this way. 

If you’re too poor to own, but rich enough to rent, you’re contributing to a super robust overall housing market. You’re not doing anything for affordability – which remains just awful – but you’re driving up rents and, in a way, helping us avoid an outright real estate crash. 

Because you know some renters who aspire to be homeowners will step off of the sidelines sooner rather than later. As prices come down, they’ll bite the bullet on that high mortgage rate, waiting for the day interest rates come down so they can refinance. 

The logic – if I can drop $4,000 a month on rent, why not put a little more towards a mortgage, wait for the market to right itself, and eventually improve my financial position as a homeowner by getting a better rate when they come down?

Just one plausible theory of many. 

What’s Your Deal? 

The Juice wants to know where you stand on housing?

  • Do you rent or own?
  • If you’re a renter, do you plan to buy? 
  • If you own a home, what’s your interest rate? 

Simply click the feedback link at the bottom of the page to send us a note with answers to our questions or anything else you’d like us to know. We might feature your response – anonymously – in a future installment of The Juice newsletter. 

The Bottom Line: Despite the flashy headlines and words like “bubble” and “crash” being tossed around, the only thing about the present housing market that isn’t healthy is affordability. 

Yes, we’re seeing homeowners take on an increasing amount of home equity debt, however they’re paying it back. And, even if home prices fall sharply, we’re not going to see large swaths of mortgages go underwater like we did starting in 2008.

 

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