A brief excerpt:
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).
I’m adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.
9) House Prices: It appears house prices – as measured by the national repeat sales index (Case-Shiller, FHFA, and CoreLogic) – will be up around 7% in 2022. What will happen with house prices in 2023?
The first question I’m always asked is what “Will happen with house prices?”. No one has a crystal ball, but it does appear house prices will decline in 2023.
…The following graph – as of the NAR release last month – shows that Case-Shiller followed the median prices up and is now following the deceleration in median prices down. It is likely the median price will be down year-over-year in a few months – and Case-Shiller will follow.
Note: Median prices are distorted by the mix (repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices).
There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/