Excerpt:
For Q1 2023, the Net Equity Extraction was minus $30 billion, or -0.60% of Disposable Personal Income (DPI). This is down significantly year-over-year and the first negative reading since Q1 2020. There is a seasonal pattern to MEW, and Q1 is usually the weakest quarter, so it is possible we will see positive MEW this summer.
During the housing bubble we saw several quarters with MEW above 8% of DPI – that didn’t happen this cycle.
This graph shows the net equity extraction, or mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW), results, using the Flow of Funds (and BEA data) compared to the Kennedy-Greenspan method. MEW was negative for a number of years but has picked up again following the onset of the pandemic.
The bottom line is, the “Home ATM” was closed in Q1 with both refinance activity and HELOC borrowing off sharply.
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