Former (and future) President Trump recently encouraged Russia to invade Nato members that spent less than 2% of GDP on defense. Tyler Cowen didn’t endorse the specific words, but suggested that Trump was “basically correct” to pressure Nato members.
I believe that both Trump and Tyler misunderstand the role of Nato. The most important aspect of Nato is not the amount it spends on the military, rather its role is to provide a mutual defense pact so large that no nation would dare to attack even its tiniest members. In that regard, it’s a smashing success.
Consider the recent war in the Ukraine, where Russia has been stalemated for 2 years. To say that Ukraine is weaker than Nato would be an understatement. Nato has 31 members, many of which are individually richer and more powerful than Ukraine. As long as Nato sticks together, Russia would not dare to attack even a small member like Estonia. It makes essentially no difference whether Germany spends 1.4% or 2.0% of GDP on its military. Nato is ten times over impregnable, if it sticks together.
But will Nato stick together? Late in his first term, Trump told aides that he hoped to pull the US out of Nato in his second term. That’s why Putin desperately wants Trump to win the election. How do I know this? Putin is so desperate that just recently he endorsed Biden (knowing the endorsement would help Trump), which must have made Putin feel sick to his stomach. If (under a future President Trump) Putin starts to doubt that the US would defend Estonia, then he might seek to recreate the Soviet Empire, triggering World War III.
Nato is the world’s most powerful force for peace. It is essential that each country’s commitment to Nato remain rock solid. It’s not a negotiating tool to be used to get a foreign policy gain, or to save a bit on the US military budget. Too much is at stake.
And keep in mind that most of our military spending is unrelated to Nato. Even if Europe did not exist, we’d spend vast sums on nuclear weapons to deter Russia, and a navy to deter China. We’d also spend lots of money on things like bombers and fighter planes to use when we intervene in the Middle East. Maybe we’d spend a tad less than 3.5% of GDP, but without Europe our GDP would be much smaller.
Let’s not forget that America’s per capita GDP is much higher than almost all other Nato members (except Norway and Luxembourg.) It’s not unreasonable for us to spend a bit more, especially given how much of our current prosperity comes from abuse of “intellectual property rights” rules.
After 1500, Europe became the world’s most successful continent by stealing its more important technologies from China, with no compensation. In the 1800s, the US became the world’s greatest industrial power by stealing its technology from Britain, with no compensation. Now we demand that (poorer) foreign countries pay up any time they use an idea or product that looks even vaguely like something produced by one of our companies. America is the most successful extortionist in global history.
A signficant portion of native born Americans are lazy slobs who sit around enjoying the world’s highest standard of living, brought to them by immigrants like Elon Musk. They believe our politicians will preserve that high standard of living by shutting off trade and keeping those immigrants out. This is the group that is outraged that those devious foreigners are free riding on our great nation by not spending enough on defense. Sorry, I’m not buying the self pity. Americans are incredibly lucky people.
PS. I hope it’s obvious that only the first half of this post is directed at Tyler’s comments.