This tweet caught my eye:
If Biden had been nominated, I guarantee that this example would have been cited by anti-EMH types. “Markets were giving a 20% chance that someone else would be nominated, when it was obvious that Biden had things wrapped up.”
The market is smarter than you think.
PS. A few comments on Harris:
I often see right wingers making two points:
1. DEI programs that promote the unqualified are bad.
2. Problem X occurred in a system that had hired women and blacks, and hence DEI is to blame for problem X.
The first claim is true, while the second is usually sexist/racist.
The Harris case is particularly interesting. She was certainly “hired” because she is a black woman. And yet she’s far more qualified to be president than either Biden or Trump. Smarter, more articulate, more energetic, etc. (Of course I don’t agree with her politics, but that’s neither here nor there.)
On the other hand, she’s not the most electable Democrat, mostly because she is a black woman. That’s presumably why Obama has held back in endorsing her; he understands that someone like Beshear is more electable. Life is unfair.
No one looks good here. Not the DEI obsessed Democrats. Not the low news engagement swing voters that don’t like forceful black female personalities. Not the Republicans who whisper that Harris is a DEI hire. Very sad all around.
PPS. Can we please stop electing senile 80-year old presidents, especially ones who have committed dozens of felonies? Is that too much to ask? The same Republicans who (correctly) insisted Biden was senile see no problem with a very old man who rambles on interminably and incoherently in a major convention speech, in the way that you associate with leaders of countries like Cuba and Venezuela. Really?
PPPS. If we had to have a “thinker” as VP, couldn’t we choose one who is less shallow than Vance. (He’s not even able to hide his disgusting bigotry.) I recently met Rob Henderson at a book signing. His life story has some similarities to Vance’s but Henderson is a vastly more thoughtful intellectual.
PPPPS. When I say “markets are smarter than you think” I’m excluding Matt Yglesias, who doesn’t like headlines telling him that he doesn’t understand something.