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Proprietary Data Insights Retail’s Top Treasury Bond ETF Searches in the Last Month
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The 5 Most Searched Treasury Bond ETFs
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Everyone is focused on the Fed’s interest rate decision this week. However, according to our TrackStar data, financial pros and retail investors are more interested in bonds than stocks compared to the typical search history. And why shouldn’t they be? The Fed’s interest rate decisions directly impact the price of U.S. Treasuries. That’s why we’ve seen an uptick across the board in search volume for U.S. Treasury ETFs by retail traders. At the top of that list is iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT. This is definitely one of the most popular ETFs for traders and investors looking for exposure to the most volatile part of the yield curve. But is it a great idea for your investment portfolio? Key Facts About TLT
The U.S. government issues U.S. Treasury debt to pay for government spending above and beyond what tax receipts bring in. Debt is issued with different maturity dates and can either have regular payments (coupons) or be sold at a steeper discount without one (zero coupon). Upon maturity, Treasuries are redeemed at par value, which is $1,000. Generally, the interest rates are lower for debt with less time until maturity than with more time. However, expectations for near-term inflation and interest rate changes by the Fed can cause the yield curve to invert, where near-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates. As an example, the current 1-month interest rate is over 5%, while the 20-year rate is closer to 4%. The TLT ETF aims to hold a portfolio of U.S. Treasuries with maturity dates 20 years or more into the future. As the table of the top holdings below shows, the ETF holds an average maturity of 25 years.
Source: iShares Longer-dated U.S. Treasury notes are more price-sensitive than shorter-dated ones. Why? If you held a 1-month Treasury note, and the rates changed in a way that wasn’t in your favor, you could easily hold the note until maturity without much opportunity cost. That doesn’t work so well when there is another 25 years before maturity. Consequently, the magnitude of change on longer-dated Treasury notes is greater than shorter-dated ones. Performance Treasury yields and price are inversely related, meaning they move in opposite directions. To help illustrate this point, imagine a Treasury that pays a $20 coupon. If the Treasury costs $1,000, the yield is 2%. If the Treasury costs $500, the yield is 4%. So, when the Fed raised interest rates, the value of bonds rapidly declined. Thus, the TLT has declined in value over the last few years.
Source: iShares Competition As our search data illustrates, there are different ways to invest in the Treasury market. Below are some alternative ETFs popular with today’s traders.
As you can see, the high interest rates on short-duration bonds have helped the SGOV and BIL outperform the others over the past few years. And, as expected, longer-duration maturities in the TLT and EDV significantly underperformed as their prices are more sensitive to interest rate changes. Our Opinion 10/10 In the short run, with the Fed expected to continue on a rate cutting regime, we would expect the past performance to flip, with the TLT outperforming shorter-duration Treasury ETFs like the SGOV or BIL. For both traders and investors, the TLT boasts plenty of liquidity, weekly options, and experienced management that make it the best option for long-duration U.S. Treasury ETFs. |
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