Housing Prices Keep Going Up And It’s Only Going To Get Worse

To put it plainly, The Juice thinks the country has put its head in the sand on housing. 

Like we do so many things, we have desensitized ourselves to high housing prices with an it is what it is attitude. This isn’t good. 

Let’s just call it like it is on housing costs. 

Where is the media on this? Outside of The Juice, we see nothing other than one of two things:

• Plain reporting on prices
• Lauding median prices that only go up a little or are flat as some sort of achievement at the same time as touting anticipated increases in supply

Where are the politicians on this? We have heard essentially nothing from Trump on housing. And Kamala Harris’s plan (down payment assistance and a homebuilding push) will not put a dent in the current affordability crisis. We’re sorry, but Washington feels absent from and useless in this conversation. 

We think this is because so many Americans are free and clear or have low-interest rates mortgages. Many of these people are older. Older people tend to vote. So politicians pay lip service to younger people and the future as they do what they need to do to win over voters, many of whom are people in good housing situations. 

Let’s face it: As we write this, 56.2% of outstanding mortgage loans have an interest rate under 4% and 74.6% are under 5%. Just 15.8% are over 6%.

We guess it is what it is, but, damn, the writing is also on the wall, particularly for younger people and new or want-to-be homeowners. And we wish someone was paying attention.  

Let’s consider some of the numbers — objectively — courtesy of Bill McBride’s Calculated Risk blog. 

• Freddie Mac’s National Home Price Index is up 3.7% year-over-year, as of August. 

So, to be clear, this means housing prices, according to Freddie Mac, are up annually. It’s no consolation that they’re not up as much as they were in July, when the index showed a 4.5% annual increase. It’s also no consolation that month-to-month, they’re basically flat. It’s also no consolation that we’re not seeing craziness like the 19.1% pop we saw in July 2021. Same for the fact that we’re down from the peak in many markets. 

Stabilization or, more often, smaller price increases do not portend increased affordability. Just the opposite really. 

More data, this time out of California, and straight from Bill—

August’s statewide median price was essentially flat, inching up 0.2 percent from $886,560 in July to $888,740 in August. California’s median home price was 3.4 percent higher than the revised $859,670 recorded in August 2023. The year-over-year gain was the 14th straight month of annual price increases, albeit the smallest since September 2023. Home prices could soften further in the coming months but should continue to register year-over-year growth for the rest of the year.

The median price of a home in California is nearly $900,000. 

Let that sink in while you consider some other, national data we compiled:

• Redfin: Median, $434,050, up 3.2% year over year
• National Association of Realtors: Median, $416,700, up 3.1% year over year
  • In the west, the NAR has the median at $622,500
  • In the south, $367,000
  • In the midwest, $315,400
  • In the northeast, $503,200
• Of course, all of these areas are up year over year, including a 7.7% annual increase in the northeast.
• Zillow says the average home price is 361,282, up 2.9% year over year.
• Corelogic says housing prices are up nationally 5.0% year over year. 
• Corelogic says New York is up 8.8%, Las Vegas 8.2%, Los Angeles and San Diego 7.2%, Cleveland 7.0% and Chicago and Detroit 6.7%. 

Cleveland was the only place with a month-to-month increase, but, here again, how is this good news? Look at the annual increases. And look at freaking Detroit. 

Here is the scary part as we see it unfolding. 

If interest rates continue to fall — and even if they don’t — buyers will be coming off of the sidelines over the next year or two. Some because they have no choice. They have waited long enough and need to make a move. Many of these people will be sitting on a ton of cash, ready to make a big down payment or even pay cash in the country’s perennial hot markets. Others will be doing it because interest rates finally hit their number. 

The folks who come from a position of strength in terms of home equity in their previous residence will be looking to buy with tons of cash to spend. 

People priced out of the bigger, more expensive markets will continue to put pressure on places such as Detroit. These bastons of affordability will no longer be quite so affordable. They’ll be what Portland, Denver and Austin became a few years ago. And, even with places such as Portland, Denver and Austin cooling (supposedly), they haven’t cooled enough to make them affordable. 

If you want to see how much money you need to make to be middle class in America and to be able to afford a typical home, check out yesterday’s Juice. 

The Bottom Line: None of this adds up. It’s terrifying really. 

The media acts like the housing crisis is about a lack of activity or supply. Are you kidding us? We were not born yesterday. 

The crisis that, even as things sort of lag along amid high interest rates, home ownership is out of reach and getting even more out of reach for millions of Americans. And rent isn’t cheap either. The typical apartment goes for $2,000 a month nationally and much more in larger cities. 

Once the election dust settles — and it might take a minute — expect the story of 2025 to be housing. It won’t be good. As everybody starts freaking out, remember who has been sounding the alarm for a while now. Your friends at The Juice will remain on the case.

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