China’s Urbanization Fallacy
The latest default bull argument supporting higher levels of growth in China than I believe possible is the urbanization argument. Beijing is planning another major...
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Interest Rates are a Horrible Guide to the Stance of Monetary Policy
Here’s Paul Krugman: But in the world we’ve been living in this past quarter-century or more, inflation expectations haven’t moved much, and...nal interest rates have,...
Austerity Sinks All Boats
July 31 saw the latest release of European Union unemployment numbers, and Monday’s gross domestic product figures brought no joy, especially for Greece......
Is Household Debt Still “Too High”?
Mark Gongloff has a good piece in the Huffington Post on households and debt. He says household debt is still too high. But he looks...
Is the US Housing Demand Driven by Fear of Higher Rates?
According to the National Association of Home Builders, US builders are ecstatic these days. The housing market index (builder optimism) hit the highest level in nearly...
Long-Term Rates and Gold Prices
"What's the correlation between long-term treasury yield and gold...rice?" was an e-mail question from one of the Sober Look readers recently. The answer of course...
Is Selling Bonds the Taste of Things to Come?
Treasury yields are on the rise as I have noted on numerous occasions recently. The action has prompted the world’s largest hedge-fund manager, to throw...
Friday: Housing Starts
The city of Richmond, Calif., is seeking to acquire mortgages as large as $1.1 million under its plan to invoke powers of eminent domain to...
What Lies Ahead for China? McKinsey Lists 10 Forces
By 2022, research by McKinsey suggests that 75 percent of urban consumers in China will earn around $9,000 to $34,000. This income level, which is...
The “New Unemployment Claims” Puzzle
The new claims for unemployment this week was a shockingly low 320,000, bringing the 4 week average down to 335,000, which is the lowest since...