One Short of Outright Majority
With vote counting nearly over, it appears Syriza captured exactly half of the 300 member Greek parliament with approximately 36.3% of the vote compared to 27.8% for New Democracy.
That was a solid trouncing, nearly double the 4-5% expected margin (see Syriza Trounces New Democracy; Greeks Stop Paying Taxes; Run on Greek Banks Escalates; Get Out!)
Syriza is one vote short of an outright majority. However, Syriza has already secured an alliance with the Independent Greeks, a right-wing party that shares little common ground with Syriza except for its rejection of austerity measures.
The coalition would have at least 162 seats, and that’s an allegedly comfortable governing majority.
I do not rule out other alliances. But holding them all may prove difficult. Certainly this was not the alliance most expected.
Can Syriza govern with the Independent Greeks on some issues and another party on others? Or will this all blow up soon? If the latter, before or after Grexit?
For now, it’s party time for Syriza, albeit one vote short of an even bigger party. Of course, there is always the chance of a party shift. It only takes one shift.
New Clash for Europe
With that backdrop, please consider Greek Vote Sets Up New Europe Clash.
With nearly all votes counted, opposition party Syriza was on track to win about half the seats in Parliament. In the wee hours of the morning, it clinched a coalition deal with a small right-wing party also opposed to Europe’s economic policy to give the two a clear majority.
“Today the Greek people have written history,” Syriza’s young leader and likely new prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, said in his victory speech late Sunday. “The Greek people have given a clear, indisputable mandate for Greece to leave behind austerity.”
A Syriza victory marks an astonishing upset of Europe’s political order, which decades ago settled into an orthodox centrism while many in Syriza describe themselves as Marxists. It emboldens the challenges of other radical parties, from the right-wing National Front in France to the newly formed left-wing Podemos party in Spain, and it sets Greece on a collision course with Germany and its other eurozone rescuers.
Tsipras will have a mammoth task at home and abroad.
For one thing, Syriza is a broad coalition of the left that includes factions that believe Greece should leave the eurozone. Those factions would pressure Mr. Tsipras if he moves to compromise with Europe.
The pressure to compromise will be intense. Under the bailout program’s rigorous schedule, Greece is required to complete a review of its progress with the so-called troika of bailout inspectors by the end of February. Mr. Tsipras has said he doesn’t recognize the troika’s authority.
Pact With the Devil?
The Wall Street Journal called the coalition of 162 seats a “comfortable majority“. I called it an “allegedly comfortable majority“.
Time will tell which version is correct. But other alliances are possible as well.
It’s interesting this coalition is the one that emerged rather than a coalition with one of the other leftist or centrist parties.
Perhaps there is more in common on the issues that is apparent at first glance. Then again, perhaps so many are so fed up with austerity they would sign a pact with the devil to get rid of it.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot