Economist Tom Lawler sent me the table below of short sales and foreclosures for several selected cities in December. This shows distressed sales are down just about everywhere, and there are more short sales than foreclosures in most areas (Minneapolis and Colorado are exceptions.
Look at the right two columns in the table below (Total “Distressed” Share for Dec 2012 compared to Dec 2011). In every area that reports distressed sales, the share of distressed sales is down year-over-year – and down significantly in most areas.
Also there has been a decline in foreclosure sales just about everywhere. Look at the middle two columns comparing foreclosure sales for Dec 2012 to Dec 2011. Foreclosure sales have declined in all these areas, and some of the declines have been stunning (the Nevada sales were impacted by a new foreclosure law). There will probably be an increase in foreclosure sales in some judicial states in 2013, but overall foreclosures will probably be down this year.
Also there has been a shift from foreclosures to short sales. In most areas, short sales now far out number foreclosures.
As a follow-up to the previous post, imagine that the number of total existing home sales doesn’t change over the next year – some people would argue that is “bad” news and the housing market isn’t recovering. But also imagine that the share of distressed sales declines 20%, and conventional sales increase to make up the difference. That would be a positive sign – and that is what appears to be happening.
Comments from Tom Lawler: Below is an updated “distressed sales” share report for
December (or, for
Q4). Data are based on releases by
realtor associations/MLS, save for
and
(and for
Dataquick’s estimates for short sales).
| Short Sales Share | Foreclosure Sales Share | Total “Distressed” Share | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-Dec | 11-Dec | 12-Dec | 11-Dec | 12-Dec | 11-Dec | |
| Las Vegas | 45.8% | 26.6% | 9.5% | 46.0% | 55.3% | 72.6% |
| Reno | 47.0% | 35.0% | 10.0% | 24.0% | 57.0% | 59.0% |
| Phoenix | 27.2% | 32.2% | 12.2% | 27.6% | 39.4% | 59.8% |
| Sacramento | 40.0% | 30.2% | 11.5% | 33.9% | 51.5% | 64.1% |
| Minneapolis | 12.3% | 14.6% | 26.6% | 35.8% | 38.9% | 50.4% |
| Mid-Atlantic (MRIS) | 13.0% | 14.3% | 9.7% | 15.4% | 22.7% | 29.7% |
| Orlando | 30.2% | 36.6% | 20.4% | 22.2% | 50.6% | 58.8% |
| California (DQ)* | 25.3% | 25.5% | 15.5% | 33.9% | 40.8% | 59.4% |
| So. California (DQ)* | 25.6% | 26.0% | 14.8% | 32.4% | 40.4% | 58.4% |
| Lee County, FL*** | 18.9% | 20.4% | 17.2% | 24.1% | 36.1% | 44.5% |
| Florida SF | 21.6% | 25.1% | 16.9% | 20.1% | 38.6% | 45.2% |
| Florida C/TH | 16.6% | 23.4% | 14.7% | 18.7% | 31.3% | 42.1% |
| Northeast Florida | 43.0% | 49.8% | ||||
| Chicago | 44.3% | 45.8% | ||||
| Charlotte | 15.6% | 17.7% | ||||
| Colorado** | 7.3% | 7.6% | 12.5% | 20.6% | 19.8% | 28.2% |
| Columbus OH** | 27.8% | 38.7% | ||||
| Atlanta | 26.0% | 47.0% | ||||
| Houston | 14.2% | 20.5% | ||||
| Memphis* | 26.9% | 30.2% | ||||
| Birmingham AL | 27.8% | 34.0% | ||||
| *share of existing home sales, based on property records | ||||||
| **Third Quarter | ||||||
| *** SF only | ||||||