Q1 GDP looks worse. Q2 GDP looks better. A couple of short excerpts …
From the WSJ on Q1: Trade Data Indicate Economy Contracted
J.P. Morgan Chase economists now estimate GDP contracted at a 0.8% pace in the first three months of 2014. Macroeconomic Advisers pegged the decline at 0.6%. Even some of the more optimistic estimates point to slight output shrinkage in the first quarter. Barclays Capital economists see a 0.2% decline and BNP Paribas put the GDP drop at a 0.1% pace.
And on Q2 from the WSJ: Economists See Growth Rebound
According to The Wall Street Journal’s May survey of 48 economists, the consensus forecast is for annualized real growth in gross domestic product of 3.3%, better than the 3% pace projected in the April survey. … Nine in the Journal’s survey are forecasting second-quarter growth of 4% or better.
Q2 should be solid.
Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for March from the BLS. In February, the number of job openings were up 4% year-over-year compared to February 2013, and Quits were up about 5% year-over-year.
• Also at 10:00 AM, Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for March. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in inventories.