The Case-Shiller house price indexes for May were released this morning. Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shiller a month early – and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.
From Zillow: Case-Shiller Forecast: Expecting Further Slowdowns Ahead
The Case-Shiller data for May 2014 came out this morning, and based on this information and the June 2014 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI, released July 20th), we predict that next month’s Case-Shiller data (June 2014) will show that both the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 20-City Composite Home Price Index and the NSA 10-City Composite Home Price Index increased by 8.1 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from May to June will be flat for the 20-City Composite Index and 0.1 percent for the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below. Officially, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for June will not be released until Tuesday, August 26.
So the Case-Shiller index will probably show a lower year-over-year gain in June than in May (9.3% year-over-year).
| Zillow June 2014 Forecast for Case-Shiller Index | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Shiller Composite 10 | Case Shiller Composite 20 | ||||
| NSA | SA | NSA | SA | ||
| Case Shiller (year ago) |
June 2013 |
173.17 | 171.70 | 159.46 | 157.92 |
| Case-Shiller (last month) |
May 2014 |
185.33 | 185.79 | 170.64 | 171.04 |
| Zillow Forecast | YoY | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% |
| MoM | 1.0% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% | |
| Zillow Forecasts1 | 187.2 | 185.8 | 172.4 | 171.0 | |
| Current Post Bubble Low | 146.45 | 149.87 | 134.07 | 137.13 | |
| Date of Post Bubble Low | Mar-12 | Feb-12 | Mar-12 | Jan-12 | |
| Above Post Bubble Low | 27.8% | 24.0% | 28.6% | 24.6% | |
| 1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts | |||||