Tuesday:
• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for July. Although this is the June report, it is really a 3 month average of May, June and July. The consensus is for a 7.5% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for July. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 7.0% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 0.1% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.
• At 9:45 AM, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 61.5, down from 64.3 in August.
Note:S&P is now releasing the National house price index monthly, and I expect reporting to shift from the Composite 20 to the National index. The National index was up 6.2% year-over-year in June. Below is a graph with the National and both composite indexes.
Earlier today I posted a table of the year-over-year changes for the Black Knight index (showing year-over-year prices have been slowing for 10 months). Here is a table for Case-Shiller showing year-over-year price changes peaked at the end of 2013, and have been slowing for months:
| Year-over-year Price Changes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Month | Composite 10 |
Composite 20 |
National Index |
| Jan-13 | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% |
| Feb-13 | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.4% |
| Mar-13 | 10.0% | 10.7% | 8.9% |
| Apr-13 | 11.3% | 11.9% | 9.0% |
| May-13 | 11.6% | 12.0% | 9.0% |
| Jun-13 | 11.7% | 11.9% | 9.2% |
| Jul-13 | 12.1% | 12.3% | 9.7% |
| Aug-13 | 12.7% | 12.8% | 10.2% |
| Sep-13 | 13.2% | 13.2% | 10.7% |
| Oct-13 | 13.6% | 13.6% | 10.9% |
| Nov-13 | 13.9% | 13.7% | 10.8% |
| Dec-13 | 13.6% | 13.4% | 10.8% |
| Jan-14 | 13.5% | 13.2% | 10.5% |
| Feb-14 | 13.2% | 12.9% | 10.2% |
| Mar-14 | 12.6% | 12.4% | 8.9% |
| Apr-14 | 10.8% | 10.8% | 7.9% |
| May-14 | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.0% |
| Jun-14 | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.2% |