With the Fed focused on inflation, here is an excerpt from Merrill Lynch research piece today on September CPI to be released next week:
We expect headline CPI to decline for the second straight month, growing -0.3% in September after a -0.1% reading for August. Weak energy prices should more than offset a slight increase in food prices this past month. Such a reading will once again push the annual headline CPI inflation rate slightly negative, at -0.2% yoy for September. Stripping out food and energy should result in a 0.1% increase in core CPI in September, matching the pace of the prior two months. As a result, the annual core inflation rate should hold steady at 1.8%. Inflation looks likely to move largely sideways for the rest of this year.