I was on record stating a belief the Fed would effectively hike by 1/8 point. I had that belief because that is what the Fed Fund Futures implied.
Regardless, I was wrong. If someone is going to prove you wrong it may as well be yourself.
Here is a table of Effective Fed Funds Rates straight from the New York Fed. I created the table from their downloadable data.
Effective Fed Funds Rate
| Date | Effective Rate | Low | High | Std. Dev. | Target Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-12-17 | 0.37 | 0.25 | 0.59 | 0.05 | 0.25-0.50 |
| 2015-12-16 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.55 | 0.04 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-12-15 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.31 | 0.04 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-12-14 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.31 | 0.04 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-12-11 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.38 | 0.04 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-12-10 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.38 | 0.04 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-12-09 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.38 | 0.04 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-12-08 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.04 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-12-07 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.04 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-12-04 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.04 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-12-03 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.04 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-12-02 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.35 | 0.04 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-12-01 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.35 | 0.05 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-11-30 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.31 | 0.06 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-11-27 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.35 | 0.05 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-11-25 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.04 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-11-24 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.35 | 0.05 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-11-23 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.35 | 0.05 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-11-20 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.35 | 0.04 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-11-19 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.35 | 0.05 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-11-18 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.35 | 0.05 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-11-17 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.35 | 0.05 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-11-16 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.05 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-11-13 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.04 | 0.00-0.25 |
| 2015-11-12 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.35 | 0.04 | 0.00-0.25 |
Previous effective rates hovered around 12.5 basis points. That is 1/8 of a point. A quarter-point (25 basis points) hike would have been to 37.5. An eighth-of-a-point hike would have been to 25 basis points. Today we are at 37.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock