Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.
• At 2:00 PM, The Monthly Treasury Budget Statement for December.
On Phoenix:
This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.
For the thirteen consecutive month, inventory was down year-over-year in Phoenix. This is a significant change from the prior year.
The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):
1) Overall sales in December were up 4.3% year-over-year.
2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 23.9% of total sales.
3) Active inventory is now down 8.0% year-over-year.
More inventory (a theme in 2014) – and less investor buying – suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014. And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.
With falling inventory, prices increased a little faster in 2015 (something to watch if inventory continues to decline). Prices are already up 4.6% through October according the Case-Shiller (about double the pace for 2014).
| December Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | YoY Change Sales |
Cash Sales |
Percent Cash |
Active Inventory |
YoY Change Inventory |
|
| Dec-08 | 5,524 | — | 1,665 | 30.1% | 53,7921 | — |
| Dec-09 | 7,661 | 38.7% | 3,008 | 39.3% | 39,709 | -26.2%1 |
| Dec-10 | 8,401 | 9.7% | 3,939 | 46.9% | 42,463 | 6.9% |
| Dec-11 | 7,843 | -6.6% | 3,635 | 46.3% | 24,712 | -41.8% |
| Dec-12 | 7,071 | -9.8% | 3,211 | 45.4% | 21,095 | -14.6% |
| Dec-13 | 5,930 | -16.1% | 2,053 | 34.6% | 25,511 | 20.9% |
| Dec-14 | 6,475 | 9.2% | 1,893 | 29.2% | 25,052 | -1.8% |
| Dec-15 | 6,756 | 4.3% | 1,617 | 23.9% | 23,053 | -8.0% |
| 1 December 2008 probably includes pending listings | ||||||