This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.
For the fourteenth consecutive month, inventory was down year-over-year in Phoenix.
The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):
1) Overall sales in January were up 8.7% year-over-year.
2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 27.4% of total sales.
3) Active inventory is now down 5.5% year-over-year.
More inventory (a theme in 2014) – and less investor buying – suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014. And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.
With falling inventory, prices increased a little faster in 2015 (something to watch in 2016 if inventory continues to decline). Prices are already up 5.3% through November according the Case-Shiller (more than double the increase in 2014).
| January Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | YoY Change Sales |
Cash Sales |
Percent Cash |
Active Inventory |
YoY Change Inventory |
|
| Jan-08 | 2,907 | — | 553 | 19.0% | 56,8741 | — |
| Jan-09 | 4,736 | 62.9% | 1,625 | 34.3% | 53,581 | -5.8% |
| Jan-10 | 5,789 | 22.2% | 2,475 | 42.8% | 41,506 | -22.5% |
| Jan-11 | 6,539 | 13.0% | 3,263 | 49.9% | 42,881 | 3.3% |
| Jan-12 | 6,455 | -1.3% | 3,198 | 49.5% | 25,025 | -41.6% |
| Jan-13 | 5,790 | -10.3% | 2,555 | 44.1% | 22,090 | -11.7% |
| Jan-14 | 4,799 | -17.1% | 1,740 | 36.3% | 28,630 | 29.6% |
| Jan-15 | 4,785 | -0.3% | 1,529 | 32.0% | 27,238 | -4.9% |
| Jan-16 | 5,199 | 8.7% | 1,425 | 27.4% | 25,736 | -5.5% |
| 1 January 2008 probably included pending listings | ||||||