This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.
Inventory was up year-over-year in March, following fifteen consecutive months of year-over-year declines in Phoenix. This could be a significant change.
The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):
1) Overall sales in March were up 8.5% year-over-year.
2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 24.6% of total sales.
3) Active inventory is now up 3.6% year-over-year.
More inventory (a theme in 2014) – and less investor buying – suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014. And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.
In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster – Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller. Inventory is something to watch in 2016!
| March Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | YoY Change Sales |
Cash Sales |
Percent Cash |
Active Inventory |
YoY Change Inventory |
|
| Mar-08 | 4,303 | — | 822 | 19.1% | 57,0811 | — |
| Mar-09 | 7,636 | 77.5% | 2,994 | 39.2% | 49,743 | -12.9% |
| Mar-10 | 8,969 | 17.5% | 3,745 | 41.8% | 42,755 | -14.0% |
| Mar-11 | 9,927 | 10.7% | 4,946 | 49.8% | 37,632 | -12.0% |
| Mar-12 | 8,868 | -10.7% | 4,222 | 47.6% | 21,863 | -41.9% |
| Mar-13 | 8,146 | -8.1% | 3,384 | 41.5% | 20,729 | -5.2% |
| Mar-14 | 6,708 | -17.7% | 2,222 | 33.1% | 30,167 | 45.5% |
| Mar-15 | 7,884 | 17.5% | 2,172 | 27.5% | 26,623 | -11.7% |
| Mar-16 | 8,555 | 8.5% | 2,107 | 24.6% | 27,580 | 3.6% |
| 1 March 2008 probably included pending listings | ||||||