This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.
Inventory was up 3.4% year-over-year in August. This is the sixth consecutive month with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix. This could be a significant change.
The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):
1) Overall sales in August were up 13.6% year-over-year.
2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 20.3% of total sales.
3) Active inventory is now up 3.4% year-over-year.
More inventory (a theme in 2014) – and less investor buying – suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014. And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.
In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster – Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.
Now inventory is increasing a little again, and – if this trend continues in Phoenix – price increases will probably slow in Phoenix. Prices in Phoenix are up 1.6% through June (about a 3.2% annual rate) – slower than in 2015.
| August Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | YoY Change Sales |
Cash Sales |
Percent Cash |
Active Inventory |
YoY Change Inventory |
|
| Aug-08 | 5,660 | — | 1,004 | 17.7% | 53,5691 | — |
| Aug-09 | 8,008 | 41.5% | 2,849 | 35.6% | 38,085 | -28.9% |
| Aug-10 | 7,358 | -8.1% | 3,129 | 42.5% | 44,307 | 16.3% |
| Aug-11 | 8,712 | 18.4% | 3,953 | 45.4% | 26,983 | -39.1% |
| Aug-12 | 7,574 | -13.1% | 3,382 | 44.7% | 20,934 | -22.4% |
| Aug-13 | 7,055 | -6.9% | 2,409 | 34.1% | 21,444 | 2.4% |
| Aug-14 | 6,431 | -8.8% | 1,621 | 25.2% | 26,138 | 21.9% |
| Aug-15 | 7,023 | 9.2% | 1,588 | 22.6% | 22,554 | -13.7% |
| Aug-16 | 7,975 | 13.6% | 1,616 | 20.3% | 23,318 | 3.4% |
| 1 August 2008 probably includes pending listings | ||||||