Statement here.
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here starting at 2:30 PM ET.
On the projections, growth was revised down, the unemployment rate revised up slightly, and inflation was softer.
Q1 real GDP growth was at 3.1% annualized, and most analysts are projecting around 2% in Q2. So the GDP projections were revised up slightly.
| GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Change in Real GDP1 |
2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Jun 2019 | 2.0 to 2.2 | 1.8 to 2.0 | 1.8 to 2.0 |
| Mar 2019 | 1.9 to 2.2 | 1.8 to 2.0 | 1.7 to 2.0 |
| Dec 2018 | 2.3 to 2.5 | 1.8 to 2.0 | 1.5 to 2.0 |
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
The unemployment rate was at 3.6% in May. The unemployment rate projection for 2019 was revised down slightly.
| Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate2 |
2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Jun 2019 | 3.6 to 3.7 | 3.6 to 3.9 | 3.7 to 4.1 |
| Mar 2019 | 3.6 to 3.8 | 3.5 to 3.9 | 3.6 to 4.0 |
| Dec 2018 | 3.5 to 3.7 | 3.5 to 3.8 | 3.6 to 3.9 |
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
As of April 2019, PCE inflation was up 1.5% from April 2018. So PCE inflation projections were revised down for 2019 and 2020.
| Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| PCE Inflation1 |
2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Jun 2019 | 1.5 to 1.6 | 1.9 to 2.0 | 2.0 to 2.1 |
| Mar 2019 | 1.8 to 1.9 | 2.0 to 2.1 | 2.0 to 2.1 |
| Dec 2018 | 1.8 to 2.1 | 2.0 to 2.1 | 2.0 to 2.1 |
PCE core inflation was up 1.6% in April year-over-year. So Core PCE inflation was revised down for 2019 and slightly for 2020.
| Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Core Inflation1 |
2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Jun 2019 | 1.7 to 1.8 | 1.9 to 2.0 | 2.0 to 2.1 |
| Mar 2019 | 1.9 to 2.0 | 2.0 to 2.1 | 2.0 to 2.1 |
| Dec 2018 | 2.0 to 2.1 | 2.0 to 2.1 | 2.0 to 2.1 |